A subscribe option feels smart, but nobody models what it actually builds. Churn eats it from one side, new cohorts feed it from the other. Enter five numbers and watch your recurring revenue compound across a year.
Month-12 MRR · total recurring · active subscribers
Projection assumes a steady inflow of new subscribers and a constant churn rate. Real cohorts vary by season and product, so treat this as a directional model, not a guarantee.
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The math on a single subscriber looks small. One customer picks the subscribe option, takes a ten percent discount, and you shrug. Where is the upside?
The upside is in the stacking. That subscriber keeps paying next month, and the month after, while a fresh cohort signs up behind them. Churn pulls some out, but if inflow beats churn, the recurring base climbs every single month. By month twelve you are collecting from a floor that took a year to build and costs you nothing new to keep.
That floor is the number that changes how you value your store. This forecaster shows it before you commit.
New customers a month, subscribe rate, churn, average order value, discount, and cadence.
Each month adds new subscribers and shrinks the survivors by churn, then bills at your cadence.
Month-12 recurring revenue, the cumulative total, active subscribers, and average subscriber lifespan.
It converts a share of one-time buyers into repeat customers who pay on a set cadence. Instead of one order, you collect month after month until they churn. The forecaster stacks each new cohort on the survivors so you see the recurring base build over a year.
Monthly churn is the percent of active subscribers who cancel each month. Consumables often sit between three and eight percent. If you have real data, use it. If not, run it twice with a low and high figure to see the range your revenue lives in.
It is the base you carry into next year before acquiring a single new customer. A healthy month-12 number means every future month starts from a higher floor, which is the whole point of adding a subscribe option.
Yes. Run it as many times as you want, no account. Drop your email only if you want the projection sent to you.
A recurring base is built one first purchase at a time, and that purchase depends on how well each visitor converts. Run your store through the free Revenue Per Visitor Calculator and see what every click earns now, and what it could earn.
Calculate My Revenue Per Visitor → Takes about 30 seconds. Three inputs, and the gap shown in dollars.